Does Wine Still Have a Future?

Lately, I've been hearing the same question over and over again "Does wine have a future?"

It's a fair question, and there are many reasons why people are asking it. Health and wellness have become a much bigger focus, alcohol-free wines and other alternative beverages are gaining popularity, and, of course, there's the rising cost of wine itself.

Movements such as Dry January have become increasingly popular over the past few years.

After the inevitable holiday indulgence, the idea is simple: spend the month of January without drinking alcohol.

For some people, it's simply a temporary break, for others, it's an opportunity to reflect on their drinking habits or discover how they feel without alcohol for a few weeks.

More recently, similar initiatives such as Sober October and the more moderate Damp January, which encourages cutting back rather than complete abstinence, have gained traction, regardless of the approach, they all point to a broader shift. Consumers today are more health-conscious, more aware of their choices, and increasingly willing to question habits that, until recently, were rarely challenged.

 

The Numbers Tell the Story

The data confirms that something is changing. According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), global wine consumption has been steadily declining since 2018, reaching one of its lowest levels in decades in 2025.

Health concerns are only part of the explanation. The OIV also points to inflation, reduced purchasing power, changing social habits, and generational shifts in consumer behavior.

At the same time, the global market for no and low alcohol beverages surpassed $24 billion in 2025 and is expected to continue growing over the coming years. Alcohol-free wine alone is forecast to grow by nearly 9% annually through 2030.

This is not simply another passing trend, it represents a genuine transformation in consumer habits. Looking at these numbers, it would be easy to conclude that wine is losing its relevance.

Yet I'm not convinced that's what's really happening.

Interestingly, despite the global decline in wine consumption, Portugal was one of the few wine-producing countries to record growth in 2025. According to the OIV, domestic wine consumption increased by 5.6% compared with the previous year, reaching its highest level ever recorded.

When I first started working in the wine industry in 1997, what fascinated me wasn't the aromas or the grape varieties. It was discovering that every bottle contained far more than wine, it contained people and stories. Even today, I still feel exactly the same whenever I visit wineries or taste wines from regions I've known for years.

Wine is an agricultural product but is also culture, history and it’s profoundly social.

Perhaps that's precisely why it has proved so difficult to replace with any other beverage.

 

Wine Still Brings People Together

After more than two decades leading wine tastings, I've witnessed the same scene countless times. People arrive as complete strangers, they sit around the same table, taste a wine,.exchange opinions, ask questions and they listen to stories. Before they realize it, they're having genuine conversations.

Wine doesn't create friendships but it has an extraordinary ability to create the space where friendships can begin.

Interestingly, a study presented earlier this year found that younger consumers are introduced to wine primarily through friends and social circles rather than through family.

I found that conclusion particularly thought-provoking. For many years, we assumed that wine appreciation was passed down from one generation to the next.

Today, we're discovering that it often begins around a table, shared with friends, colleagues, or people who simply enjoy spending time together. In the end, wine remains, above all, a social experience.

Are We Drinking Less, but Choosing Better?

Over the past few years, international health organizations and public authorities have become much more direct about the risks associated with alcohol consumption. At the same time, access to information has made consumers more aware of prevention, wellness, and healthier lifestyles.

Yet between alarmist messages and defensive reactions, one simple truth remains… at the end of the day, each of us makes our own choices according to our circumstances, lifestyle, and priorities.

Perhaps that's why today's conversation is becoming less about drinking more or less, and more about drinking consciously. That, in my opinion, helps explain why many people are choosing to drink less without necessarily walking away from wine altogether.

The fact that younger generations consume less alcohol than previous generations doesn't automatically mean they have lost interest in wine. At several international conferences, one idea keeps resurfacing "Less but Better."

I have to admit, this is exactly what I see in my own work with Portuguese wine consumers. More and more people want to know who made the wine, where it comes from, what makes it unique, and why it tells a different story. I also see people buying fewer bottles while placing much greater value on the ones they choose to open.

Wine is gradually losing its place as an everyday beverage and becoming something reserved for the moments that truly matter. And perhaps more importantly, for moments that deserve to be enjoyed without rushing.

This shift is also reflected in consumer preferences. Take Portugal's Alentejo region, for example, the decline in wine consumption has not affected every category equally. Wines without a geographical indication (Vinho), traditionally associated with higher-volume consumption, have been losing relevance, while certified wines with denomination of origin, whether D.O.C. or Regional, continue to attract growing consumer interest.

Today's consumers are less focused on quantity and increasingly interested in a wine's origin, identity, and quality.

Finally, there's the question of price. Inflation, rising production costs, higher energy prices, and increased transportation expenses have all made wine more expensive than it was just a few years ago.

For many consumers, opening a bottle is no longer an automatic part of everyday life.

It has become a more thoughtful decision. Ironically, this may be reinforcing the very same "Less but Better" philosophy, when a bottle is opened, people want the occasion to be worth it.

What Are We Really Looking For?

One of the presentations I attended this year at Wine Paris that left the biggest impression on me wasn't actually about wine,it was about people, more specifically, it explored loneliness and our fundamental human need to belong.

It examined the growing demand for communities and face-to-face gatherings in an increasingly digital world. The researchers showed that younger generations are actively seeking experiences centered around small groups, informal dinners, shared interests, and meaningful social interaction.

As I listened, I couldn't help thinking that wine has always been present in exactly these kinds of moments, not because it's essential but because it helps.

It helps create an atmosphere, making conversations last a little longer and it has the remarkable ability to turn an ordinary meal into an occasion.

Wine isn't the reason people come together, but very often, it's the reason they stay around the table just a little longer.

What About Alcohol-Free Wine?

Personally, I'm genuinely curious about alcohol-free wines, and I believe this category is here to stay.

Some people choose them because they're driving, taking medication, going through a particular stage in life, or simply because they don't want to drink alcohol on that occasion and that seems perfectly reasonable to me.

What I find most interesting is that many of these consumers are still looking for something that resembles the wine experience. They still want to raise a glass during a toast, share a meal and feel part of the moment.

In France, an interesting pattern has emerged. Many consumers alternate between traditional wine and alcohol-free wine depending on the occasion. The industry has even given this behavior a name "zebra consumption." Rather than choosing one side of the debate, these consumers simply adapt their choice to the context.

Perhaps the future isn't about choosing between alcoholic and alcohol-free wine,perhaps it's about making room for both. After all, what many people are really looking for isn't just a beverage, it's the experience, the conversation, the feeling of belonging that comes with sharing a bottle around the table.

Maybe It Was Never Just About Wine

When I think about the bottles I remember most, I rarely remember only what was inside them. I remember the occasion, the people, the conversations... those are the memories that stay with me.

Perhaps that's why wine continues to matter, not because we need wine itself, but because we continue to need one another. Human beings have always been social creatures, we need reasons to celebrate, we need conversations, we need to share stories, create memories, and feel that we belong. For thousands of years, wine has quietly accompanied those moments.

And I have a feeling that, as long as we continue to gather around the table, there will always be a place for a bottle of wine.

Sources: This article draws on insights presented at international conferences and research sessions during Wine Paris 2026.