The Wine Market in 2026 - Present, Future, and Signals to Watch

Talking about wine trends in 2026 is not about predicting passing fashions. It is about observing signals that are already visible in behaviors, choices, and in the way we relate to wine today.

In Portugal, wine remains culture and emotion. What has changed is the context. Wine is produced, communicated, and consumed differently. The present demands adaptation, the future requires clarity.

Today’s Portuguese wine consumer drinks less, but chooses with greater intention. They are familiar with grape varieties and regions and rely on buying guides. Wine is gradually moving away from being an everyday commodity (often driven primarily by price) and becoming a conscious choice for specific, meaningful occasions. In other words, wine has lost its status as the dominant daily beverage in social life and at the table.

There are several reasons for this shift, one of the most significant being an aging population. As a result, the European market has been following a trend of declining per capita consumption in many countries. According to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), this downward trend in consumption is expected to continue into 2026.

According to the Bordeaux Wine Interprofessional Council (CIVB), red wine consumption in France has fallen by around 90% since the 1970s. Overall wine consumption in the country (red, white, and rosé wines) has declined by more than 80% since 1945. This trend is even more pronounced among Generation Z, which purchases roughly half the volume bought by older Millennials, according to Nielsen.

Today’s wine drinkers are searching for purpose, story, and authenticity, not merely an alcoholic beverage. Since 2020, consumers have become more demanding and better informed. Cultural heritage still matters, but on its own it is no longer enough.

Looking at purchasing patterns, fresh white wines and sparkling wines are among the styles gaining ground, due both to their gastronomic versatility and their appeal to younger audiences. Dry rosés and lower-alcohol red wines follow closely, across all age groups.

In the United States, wine consumption has also reached historically low levels, reflecting changes in drinking habits, competition from alternative beverages, and tariff-related issues affecting the supply chain.

The U.S. market is already responding directly. Many large producers are adapting to younger consumers through more flexible offerings and alternative formats. The focus is on profitability, efficiency in on-premise sales (restaurants, bars, events), and diversification beyond the traditional glass bottle. In 2026, “Made in the USA” propositions such as canned wine, wine on tap, and no or low alcohol wines are expected to continue growing.

In Portugal, these options also exist, but remain timid. They still suffer from a classic “chicken-and-egg” effect. Consumers do not ask for them, producers do not offer them. I also see many producers constrained by limiting beliefs when it comes to rethinking how wine can be made and sold.

Seven Trends for 2026

1. Diversification of Grape Varieties and Regional Identities

Consumer interest and curiosity in indigenous and “forgotten” grape varieties will continue to grow. The search for differentiated alternatives to global classics and for wines that tell unique stories, will be a strong theme in 2026.

Natural wine producers have been particularly effective at delivering this to consumers. While it is hard to imagine how many more natural wine bars Lisbon can absorb, the number of Portuguese wine producers and winemakers “making the leap” continues to grow year after year. Wine supply will not be an issue, nor will places to enjoy it, at least in Lisbon.

One of the major topics of 2025 was tariffs on imported wines into the U.S. This situation affected margins and commercial strategies for many producers, particularly influencing stock rotation. As a result, it is very likely that in early 2026 we will still be seeing in Portuguese supermarkets, wines from older vintages, at a time when we would normally already be buying the most recent harvest.

2. Freshness as the New Luxury

Lighter-bodied wines (those with higher acidity and lower than 13% volume alcohol) are gaining preference among consumers. Precise white wines, sparkling wines, dry rosés, and lighter reds align well with new eating habits (international cuisine, take-away culture) and a greater focus on well-being.

3. Being at the Table, Even Without Alcohol

Whether by personal choice, conviction, or circumstance, it is now possible to continue drinking wine even when alcohol is not an option. Low and no-alcohol wines often referred to as NoLo (No/Low Alcohol) have moved beyond being a marginal curiosity and are becoming an established category. In Portugal, they can already be found in bars and restaurants, including fine dining venues.

This evolution reflects a broader shift in consumption habits, driven by increased attention to health, well-being, and a more conscious relationship with alcohol, as well as by demographic and cultural changes in Portugal, where a growing population of foreign residents brings different drinking patterns, without giving up ritual, flavor, or the social experience associated with wine.

4. Sustainability Is No Longer a Selling Point

Sustainable practices such as regenerative agriculture or simply choosing lighter glass bottles have become clear expectations for many consumers, rather than niche options.

Producers worldwide are adopting practices that respond to climate challenges, including planting more resilient grape varieties, precision irrigation management, and vineyards at varied altitudes. These choices are shaping viticulture and influencing the style of wines in future vintages.

Artificial intelligence is also making its way into the wine sector. Academic studies show it is being applied to improve sustainability and efficiency in viticulture, production, and wine tourism, with both economic and environmental impact.

In by-the-glass service, wine on tap is expected to become increasingly common in bars and events over the coming years. This system combines profitability, consistency, and sustainability. By replacing bottles with reusable kegs, it significantly reduces waste (oxidized wine, glass, cardboard, corks, and capsules) while optimizing cost per serving and allowing for more controlled, predictable service.

What remains is to encourage more Portuguese producers to offer their wines in this format in a structured and regular way, recognizing it not as a “lesser” service, but as a modern, efficient solution aligned with the demands of forward-thinking venues.

5. Fewer Obvious Wines, Smarter Wine Lists

As mentioned earlier, today’s Portuguese wine consumer is more informed and is likely buying more wine for home consumption than what they drink in restaurants. When they do go out, they do not want to find the same selection they already know.

This increases the importance of wine lists that truly represent diversity. Emerging regions, less predictable grape varieties, and a strong by-the-glass offer should take center stage if an establishment wants a winning wine list.

Education for professionals responsible for wine service is a constant,not merely a trend for 2026. For many years now, training has moved away from being centered on technical terminology and scores. The focus has shifted toward emotional connection, understanding consumers as individuals, and storytelling that values memories and personal associations with wine.

Rather than delivering knowledge as a technical “thesis,” it is increasingly important to educate through narrative and emotion. Promoting experiences, such as visits to producers that engage memory, occasion, and relationship tends to create stronger loyalty and engagement. And it gives the professional a good story to tell the guest.

6. Tasting Is No Longer Enough

In-store tastings are giving way to experiences that allow time, narrative, and emotional engagement. Wine tourism and sensory experiences will continue to gain relevance. Wine tourists seek immersion, storytelling, and integrated cultural contexts not just tastings.

The Global Wine Tourism Report 2025 highlights how wine tourism has moved from niche to a dynamic driver of rural development, with a strong emphasis on authenticity and sustainability in visitor experiences.

In 2026, wine tourism will continue to establish itself as a natural extension of wine. While Generation Z is not consuming wine in the same way as previous generations, there is a clear movement toward wines with story and quality rather than pure volume. Wine tourism can be a meaningful path here.

Online platforms, digital wine clubs, and personalized consumption tools are becoming increasingly important in how consumers relate to wine, especially among Generation Z. This is not just about e-commerce, but about creating ecosystems that combine relevant content, personalization, and community, fostering repeated and deeper interactions.

For 2026 and beyond, producers who best combine human talent with digital tools that reinforce value, story, and authenticity will be well positioned to capture new market segments and build lasting consumer relationships.

7. Wine Needs to Speak About People Again

Producers, too, need to move away from technical obsession and reconnect with the human dimension. Language can be accessible without losing rigor.

Tradition should be a starting point, not the final destination. How many more stories about “small family producers” will consumers hear? Communication should aim to build relationships, not merely to impress. What does a family crest really tell us? Or worse, not knowing who is actually behind the wines of “Quinta X.”

Portugal has diversity, identity, unique grape varieties, and a deep connection between wine and territory. The challenge is not the lack of content, it is the contemporary translation of that content. Experience must be designed as narrative, because consumers value truth more than perfection.

The year 2026 does not mark a rupture, but rather consolidates a movement already underway. The wines that thrive are those that know how to listen, adapt, and communicate with humanity. For wine lovers, this translates into more conscious choices.

Final Note — A Personal Reflection

As a Sommelier and Wine Educator, with over two decades spent tasting, studying, teaching, and accompanying very different people in their relationship with wine, I feel we are living through a particularly interesting and demanding moment.

We have never had so much technical knowledge available, so much data, so many tools. And yet, paradoxically, it has never been more important to slow down, listen, and observe.

What I see in the present and the near future, is a clear invitation to return to the essential: wine as a human, cultural, and sensory experience.

A wine that does not need to prove its importance, but knows how to create connection. A wine that explains itself when needed, but also knows how to remain silent in the glass.

I deeply believe that Portugal has everything it needs to continue asserting itself in this new global context of diversity, identity, people, and authentic stories. The challenge lies less in changing who we are and more in learning how to tell what we do better with rigor, clarity, and sensitivity.

If this article generates questions rather than definitive answers, then it has fulfilled its purpose.